Risk of red tide and eutrophication under climate change phenomena in Thailand

Document Type : Original research

Authors

1 Environmental Science Programme, Faculty of Science and Technology, Bansomdejchaopraya Rajabhat University, 1061 Itsaraphap 15 Road, Thonburi, Bangkok 10600, Thailand

2 Faculty of Science and Technology, Valaya Alongkorn Rajabhat University under Royal Patronage, Pathum Thani 13180, Thailand

Abstract

Climate change events cause changes in seawater quality, subsequently affecting phytoplankton abundance. This study aims to investigate limiting factors for phytoplankton growth, develop a model to simulate the variation of phytoplankton under climate change events, and evaluate the risk of algae blooms during the climate change crisis. The study was conducted in the inner Gulf of Thailand. Phytoplankton and seawater were sampled monthly from January to December 2019. The Pearson correlation and model fitness (linear and non-linear) were employed to investigate limiting factors and simulate the climate change scenarios. Results revealed that the major limiting factors are phosphate and nitrite-nitrate for estuarine and coastal areas, respectively. The model simulations demonstrated that algal blooms in estuarine areas can be observed more frequently in warm and drought-affected regions (rainfall <5 mm/month). Meanwhile, intensive rainfall (>300 mm/month) is a factor influencing the mechanisms of red tide and eutrophication in coastal areas. According to climate change scenarios (IPCC AR5), the model simulation showed that there are risks of red tide and eutrophication in all RCPs. The annual blooms can be found in February and September in estuarine and coastal areas, respectively. These results can enhance the red tide warning system and lead to climate change adaptation practices for aquaculture during extreme weather events in estuarine and coastal areas.

Keywords

International Aquatic Research
Volume 17, Issue 3
September 2025
Pages 263-276

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